Pentagonsponsored report studying the national security impacts of abrupt climate change. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the montreal. The chart above outlines some potential military implications of climate change in the years 20102020. Pdf an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the oceans thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture. Global warming stopped around 2000, the human contribution to climate change is negligible. Abrupt impacts of climate change the national academies press. A largescale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists or is anticipated to persist for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems. Abrupt climate change union of concerned scientists. For this synthesis and assessment report, abrupt climate change is defined as.
Pdf large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred. Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security october 2003 explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays. Download a free pdf or purchase the published report at. Efforts to limit co 2 emissions alone may not be sufficient to avoid or reduce the risk of dai on a decadal time scale, including the risk of. The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from. Abrupt climate change is climate change that occurs relatively rapidly. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human. Definition of abrupt climate change columbia university. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security. The item an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security, by peter schwartz and doug randall represents a specific, individual, material embodiment of a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in indiana state library.
This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions. The report bases its abrupt climate change scenario on the collapse of thermohaline circulation in the atlantic ocean. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation. Abrupt change is already underway in some systems, and large. Understand the mechanisms linking climate change to social collapse as proposed in the pentagon document. There are essentially two definitions of abrupt climate change. In february 2004, the department of defense dod released an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security. This item is available to borrow from 1 library branch. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united. Mar 07, 2004 a pentagon study on climate change and us national security. This risk of further rapid abrupt climate change, as for example, temperatures zooming upwards, depends upon the integrity of the ice of the arctic, among other considerations. We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge united states national security in ways that should. The role of oceans, atmosphere, and the polar regions, national research council, january 22, 1999 abstract the present note investigates alternative approaches to estima ting the economic impact of abrupt.
An event that occurred about 12,800 years before present bp, termed the younger dryas yd, is the canonical example of abrupt climate change. It is widely recognized that abrupt climate change is a rapid transition between climate states. The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on united states national security. Munich re, weather catastrophes and climate change munich re, weather catastrophes and climate change the state of science abrupt climate change many aspects of the climate system are not yet sufficiently understood and are the subject of current research and scientific discussion. The pentagon report on an abrupt climate change scenario was commissioned by andrew marshall, longtime director of a think tank called the office of net assessment. Under a highemissions scenario representative concentration pathway rcp 8.
In the climate change disruption scenario proposed here, we consider a period of gradual warming leading to 2010 and then outline the following ten years, when like in the 8,200 event, an abrupt change toward cooling in the pattern of weather conditions change is assumed to occur. Abrupt climate change the nonlinearity of the climate system may lead to abrupt climate change, sometimes called rapid climate change, abrupt events, or even surprises. Aug 27, 20 the report bases its abrupt climate change scenario on the collapse of thermohaline circulation in the atlantic ocean. Press reports usually called marshall the yoda of the pentagon, and foreign policy magazine in 2012 called him one of the worlds top global thinkers. Abrupt climate change 2 in this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. A historical context environmental instability is not a new security concept, and history suggests that.
However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. The term abrupt often refers to time scales faster than the typical time scale of the responsible forcing. Keep in mind that the duration of this event could be decades, centuries, or millennia and it could begin this year or many years in the future. Abrupt climate change in an oscillating world scientific. How global warming may trigger abrupt climate changes.
Our interest in abrupt climate changes in the past is not only academic. Abrupt impacts of climate change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. The economic impacts of abrupt climatic change william d. An environmental security analysis of abrupt climate change. A historical context environmental instability is not a. Planktonic foraminifera sequential version abrupt climatic change world climate research programme northern hemisphere temperature these keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security october 2003 introduction when most people think about climate change, they imagine gradual increases in temperature and only marginal changes in other climatic conditions, continuing indefinitely or even leveling off at some time in the future. The term abrupt climate change describes changes in climate that occur over the span of years to decades, compared to the humancaused changes in climate that are occurring over the time span of decades to centuries. The probability of this taking place is a very real scenario and tests have shown that a certain collapse has already begun in the polar regions. We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves. Schwartz, peter, 1946 abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security 22 leaves dlc 2004356396 ocolc54466624 identifying numbers oclc. Mar 22, 2018 abrupt climate change in an oscillating world. Pdf in february 2004, the department of defense released an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states.
Nordhaus, yale university paper prepared for a meeting on abrupt climate change. Understand why abrupt climate change is so relevant in a global political context. Our understanding of past abrupt climate changes and their causes is still in its infancy. Even when co 2 emissions stop, climate change is largely irreversible for 1,000 years 15, 16. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for u. There are at least three wellsupported hypotheses for the causes of such a jump. A pentagon study on climate change and us national security. It is best seen in the greenland ice cores, although it had very marked consequences over europe, north america, and as far as new zealand. However, not all abrupt climate changes need be externally forced. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security by peter schwartz and doug randall, october 2003. The possibility of abrupt climate change occurring because of the ongoing global warming and its oceanic effects is attracting great attention. Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas ghg emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing.
May 25, 2017 an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security october 2003 explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays. The worldwide ramifications of a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the north atlantic ocean are explored. The global thermohaline circulation thc consists of coolinginduced deep convection and sinking at high latitudes, upwelling at lower latitudes, and the. For an example of one of the most drastic renewal events, i recommend by ebook black death and abrupt earth changes in the 14th century. Both abrupt changes in the physical climate system and steady changes in. Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts. Causes of abrupt climate change columbia university. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security october 2003.
This document presents a plausible scenario for abrupt climate change that can be used to explore implications for food supply, health and disease, commerce and trade, and their consequences for united states national security. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. A potential abrupt feedback due to thermokarst lake formations in the arctic, in response to thawing permafrost soils, releasing additional greenhouse gas methane, is currently not accounted for in climate models. Report on effects of a changing climate to the department of. The item an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security, by peter schwartz and doug randall represents a specific, individual, material embodiment of a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in brigham young university. Written by peter schwartz and doug randall of consulting firm global business network gbn, the study outlined a possible future with climatic conditions similar to those 8200 years ago. Global warming as a possible trigger for abrupt change. Abrupt climate change 8 occur, there is evidence that it might be and it is dods job to consider such scenarios. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. In february 2004, the department of defense released an abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security. Climate models are unable yet to predict abrupt climate change events, or most of the past abrupt climate shifts. Schwartz, peter, 1946 abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for united states national security 22 leaves dlc 2004356396 ocolc54466624 identifying. Inevitable surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence.
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